Geneva [Switzerland], September 18: The 2025 edition of the World Trade Report has revealed that, with the right enabling policies, artificial intelligence (AI) could boost the value of cross-border flows of goods and services by nearly 40% by 2040 thanks to productivity gains and lower trade costs. However, the flagship publication by the WTO Secretariat notes that for AI and trade to contribute to inclusive growth - with benefits shared widely - policies need to be in place to bridge the digital divide, invest in workforce skills, and maintain an open and predictable trading environment.
According to the report, AI could lead to significant increases in trade and GDP by 2040, with global trade projected to rise by 34-37% across different scenarios based on different degrees of policy and technological catch-up between low-, middle- and high-income economies. Global GDP could meanwhile see a 12-13% increase across different scenarios. Trade, in turn, can be a powerful enabler of inclusive AI -supported growth by helping economies access AI-enabling goods, such as raw materials, semiconductors and intermediate inputs. The WTO report estimates that global trade in these goods totalled USD 2.3 trillion in 2023.
"AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven," WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala says in her foreword to the report.
"With the right mix of trade, investment and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities in all economies. With the right frameworks, trade can play a central role in making AI work for all. The WTO is committed to supporting this effort," DG Okonjo-Iweala said.
In a scenario in which low- and middle-income economies narrow their digital infrastructure gap with high-income economies by 50% and adopt AI more widely, these economies are projected to see incomes rising by 15% and 14% respectively .
The report also points to the need for open and predictable trade policies, noting that the number of quantitative restrictions applied to AI-related goods has climbed sharply over time, from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, driven by high- and upper middle-income economies. Access to AI-enabling goods remains uneven, with bound tariffs reaching up to 45% in some low-income economies.
Investing in education and training and deploying appropriate labour market policies can help avoid a widening of inequality within economies, the report adds.
The report emphasises the role of the WTO in helping to deliver inclusive access to AI and its benefits. The organisation provides a forum for WTO members to discuss AI-related trade measures, the report notes, highlighting that 80 specific trade concerns raised at the WTO have focused on AI. Dedicated discussions on AI and inclusive trade have also taken place in the context of the Work Programme on E-Commerce.
Additional commitments from members, such as through broader participation in the WTO's Information Technology Agreement and updated commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services, could make AI more inclusive and affordable, the report adds.
Source: Emirates News Agency
