Abu Dhabi [UAE], March 7: Soaring costs, extended shipping times, fluctuating orders. nearly a week after the Middle East conflict officially broke out, the impact on Vietnam's exports is becoming even clearer.
"War" surcharges have increased.
The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East immediately disrupted the transport of goods to the region. On March 5th, shipping companies continued to update their policies related to maritime transport.
Maersk has announced the temporary suspension of all refrigerated shipments to and from the UAE, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. Shipments of dry goods, oversized cargo, and hazardous materials to and from most countries in this region are also temporarily suspended. Shipments already booked but not yet shipped to the aforementioned countries and ports will be cancelled due to the ongoing uncertainty. For goods already booked but not yet loaded, Maersk encourages customers to contact their local Maersk representatives to change the destination port and adjust schedules and routes to avoid affected areas. For goods already in transit, shipping lines have diverted their vessels at sea for temporary shelter.
According to representatives of shipping companies, adjusting routes and changing schedules will prolong delivery times. Responding to Thanh Nien newspaper , many businesses stated that this will significantly impact export orders, most notably by potentially increasing storage costs and affecting product quality. Mr. Do Ha Nam, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Intimex Group and Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association, updated: The current tense situation in the Middle East has caused shipping companies to temporarily suspend accepting goods, and many routes have seen sharp price increases. Given these risks, both sellers are reluctant to deliver goods, and buyers are hesitant to accept them. The increased transportation costs are a major difficulty for businesses, especially those with CIF contracts, while FOB contracts carry less risk. However, recently, Vietnamese businesses often sign CIF contracts. Therefore, many Vietnamese agricultural products such as rice exported to Africa and coffee to Europe are facing significant difficulties.
Due to the conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a number of shipping companies have announced emergency surcharges to offset operating costs. Maersk, the world's largest shipping company, is applying a surcharge of $1,800-$3,800 per container, depending on the type, to countries such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman, and vice versa. Hapag-Lloyd is adding a "War Risk Surcharge" (WRS) of $1,500-$3,500 per container. CMA CGM announced an "Emergency Conflict Surcharge" of $2,000-$4,000 for 20-40 foot containers and special cargo. Wan Hai also announced additional operating costs - known as the Emergency Conflict Surcharge (ESC) - that will be applied immediately. The fees range from $2,000 to $3,000 per dry cargo container, depending on the type, and $4,000 for each refrigeration unit or specialized equipment.
The leader of a company specializing in exporting fresh fruit to the EU admitted that this was a real shock for the business, having just received notification yesterday that the surcharge for transporting goods through the Middle East would increase by $1,500-$4,000 per container. "With the new surcharge, our sea freight costs to the Middle East will triple, and we will certainly suffer heavy losses if we cannot reach an agreement with our customers and shipping lines," he worried.
Mr. Nguyen Van Muoi, Deputy Secretary General of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, said that a survey had been sent to members to understand their specific difficulties and report to the Ministry of Industry and Trade. Currently, most businesses are facing difficulties due to high transportation costs exceeding their profit margins. In terms of markets, the EU and the Middle East are experiencing very high growth rates in consumption of Vietnamese goods. The ongoing conflict, which is disrupting exports, will have a significant impact if the war does not end soon. "The export value of fruits and vegetables to the European Union (EU) increased by more than $320 million, corresponding to a threefold increase in the period 2021-2025. This growth reflects both the expansion of the market size and the shift in product structure. In 2025 alone, the export value is expected to increase by more than 52%. For other goods, in 2025 Vietnam will sell approximately $9 billion worth of goods to several Middle Eastern countries. The largest purchasing market is the UAE, with nearly $6 billion, half of which is telephones and components," Mr. Mười cited.
Double damage as domestic transportation costs also increase.
Not only are Vietnamese manufacturing and export businesses facing immense pressure from rising shipping costs, but they are also under significant domestic transportation expenses. Many import-export businesses have reported to Thanh Nien newspaper that immediately after the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade announced a simultaneous price increase for all petroleum products on the afternoon of March 5th, freight transport companies and truck drivers began raising their prices.
Mr. Binh Nguyen (Vinh Long) reported that the transport company recently informed him that imported goods arriving at Cat Lai Port (Ho Chi Minh City) for transport to Tra Vinh (Vinh Long province) would incur an additional 600,000 VND per round trip. This week, the transportation company and the transport company are discussing a 50/50 split, meaning the company will bear 300,000 VND and the transport company 300,000 VND. However, from next week onwards, the company will have to pay the entire increased fee. Notably, calculations show that the route from Ho Chi Minh City to Tra Vinh is approximately 200 km long. Fuel consumption for a tractor-trailer is around 35-40 liters per 100 km. Therefore, the 200 km journey would consume approximately 70-80 liters of fuel. The price increased by 3,800 VND/liter, meaning the increase for a 200 km round trip is estimated at only 300,000 VND. Therefore, import-export businesses suspect that transport companies are deliberately taking advantage of the unstable oil prices caused by the conflict to raise freight rates unreasonably.
However, in an interview with Thanh Nien newspaper , Mr. NTD, director of a transportation company in Ho Chi Minh City, affirmed that there is no question of transportation businesses raising prices arbitrarily. He explained that fuel prices typically account for 30-35% of transportation costs. For older vehicles, this percentage can reach 40%. If fuel prices increase by about 20%, transportation costs will naturally increase by 6-7%. Furthermore, fuel prices didn't just start rising on March 5th or after the conflict. Since last year, fuel prices have been quietly increasing in small increments many times, and have already risen by 30%, forcing transportation businesses to adjust prices. Moreover, fuel prices have shown signs of scarcity. Some drivers have been limited to only 50 liters of fuel per refueling in recent days. Businesses wanting to buy in bulk are also unable to do so; if they insist on buying in bulk, they have to pay extra.
"With scarce input materials and rising prices, freight rates are forced to increase accordingly. Now, freight rates are rising on every route. For example, we use 50 liters of gasoline for a trip from District 7 (old) to Binh Chanh District (old). After the adjustment on March 5th, the price of diesel has risen to 3,800 VND/liter, an increase of nearly 4,000 VND/liter, so that trip would cost almost 200,000 VND more. The longer the route, the more fuel is used, and the higher the freight rate. On average, freight rates need to increase by 10-15% to cover costs," Mr. NTD explained.
According to Mr. NTD, it's certain that transport businesses won't make huge profits from the fare increase because, in reality, transport businesses have been facing extreme difficulties recently. The driver shortage crisis, coupled with stricter regulations on vehicle management, increased fines for violations and high interest rates, and banks tightening credit limits, are pushing transport businesses to the brink of bankruptcy. Many companies that previously had fleets of 50-60 vehicles are now having to gradually sell off their fleets, leaving them with only a dozen or so. With so many costs weighing them down, even increasing fares in line with rising oil prices wouldn't be enough to cover expenses, let alone make a profit.
"With the current tense situation and unstable oil prices, transportation businesses like ours are the first and most directly affected. Every business is facing difficulties, but you can't just blame the transportation sector for soaring logistics costs. There are many other expenses that have skyrocketed, but no one talks about them. Previously, a shipment from District 7 port to Binh Chanh cost 3 million VND in shipping fees, with container handling fees only 250,000-300,000 VND; now, shipping fees have increased to 3.2 million VND, but handling fees have risen to 1.5 million VND. Many shipments I help clients with have shipping costs to the warehouse of 100 million VND, but I have to add another 50 million VND for container handling. Those fees are still increasing relentlessly, every quarter. This shows that in the total high logistics costs borne by import-export businesses and customers, our domestic transportation costs are only a small part. There are many other high costs that the government needs to review," Mr. NTD frankly commented.
Mr. BL, the director of a transportation company in Ho Chi Minh City, lamented: "We just finished a meeting and are having a headache because freight rates have increased too much. From January 2026 until now, freight rates have increased by 35%, but when we informed our customers, they refused to negotiate. Contracts have already been signed, and if customers don't share the risk, our business will surely be in trouble."
Stay calm to find opportunities in adversity.
Dr. Huynh Thanh Dien from Nguyen Tat Thanh University assessed: The Middle East conflict is taking place right in the busiest strait, seriously affecting the global logistics system. This is also where there are very large oil reserves at good prices, serving as a major supply source for many countries. It is difficult to reverse the situation in the short term. Therefore, it is inevitable that production and business costs will increase due to the domino effect of rising fuel prices. With both scarce and rising input fuels, output prices will naturally fluctuate as well. According to Dr. Dien, the impact could be even more serious if import-export businesses have orders canceled, cannot withstand losses through this difficult period, and have to scale back production, affecting the overall growth of the country's import-export sector - one of the three economic pillars identified for breakthroughs in the coming period.
However, Dr. Huynh Thanh Dien believes that businesses do not need to panic too much. In the first scenario, if the conflict does not last long, the impacts will only be short-term. Immediately after the fighting ceases, logistics and fuel supply will return to stability, and business operations will quickly return to normal. In the case of a prolonged conflict, like the war between Russia and Ukraine, each link in the supply chain will have to find ways to adapt. Transportation routes may be diverted, and fuel supply may also change.
"In this context, Vietnam can also seek opportunities. Foreign investors will tend to look for places with a safe and friendly environment. Vietnam currently has a friendly foreign policy, a stable political environment, and is undergoing strong institutional reforms and deep integration. When we send such signals, it will be a plus in the eyes of foreign investors. Orders will come, investors will come, and foreign direct investment will also come. Vietnamese businesses will also have to restructure their product output, diversify markets, and make the most of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. In general, in any situation, we need to remain calm to find opportunities in crises," Dr. Huynh Thanh Dien stated.
Source: Thanh Nien Newspaper
