Hanoi [Vietnam], January 17: Some international experts have praised Vietnam's economic situation in recent times and expect that the Party's policies will continue to drive the economy to achieve new breakthroughs.
In an interview with Thanh Nien newspaper , Professor David Dapice (Tufts University, USA) assessed that, like most countries in the world, Vietnam faced many shocks in 2025. However, by implementing reforms, Vietnam did not cut its high economic growth target
Important foundation
Further analysis by Professor Dapice points out: "Initially, the retaliatory tariff of 46% imposed by US President Donald Trump on Vietnam was seen as a major blow to the Vietnamese economy. However, Vietnam skillfully managed the situation during negotiations and achieved a tariff rate approximately equal to that of its main ASEAN competitors and lower than the rates applied to India or China. Furthermore, foreign direct investment (FDI) increased and exports rose by 16% in 2025. From January to September 2025, Vietnam's exports to the US increased by 41% in value compared to the same period in 2024. Part of this increase may be due to expedited orders to avoid tariffs, but Vietnam's total exports and GDP growth from January to September 2025 were stronger than in the first half of 2025."
Mr. Dapice emphasized that 2025 was a remarkable year for Vietnam, with growth of around 8%, thanks to continued FDI inflows, high public investment, and export growth. However, overall, the average GDP growth rate during the 2020-2025 period is only 5.7%, significantly lower than the average of 7.1% during the 2015-2019 period. This is not surprising. Labor force growth is slowing, and the migration of low-productivity rural workers to higher-productivity non-agricultural jobs has slowed from over one million per year to a few hundred thousand. This transfer contributed 1-2% to GDP growth annually, but is now gradually decreasing. Future growth requires much higher productivity growth.
"Regarding the aforementioned issue, the Politburo of Vietnam has recognized the challenge and has therefore put forward a reform roadmap with four prominent resolutions known as the 'four pillars'. These are resolutions No. 57-NQ/TW on breakthroughs in the development of science, technology, innovation and national digital transformation; 59-NQ/TW on international integration in the new situation; 66-NQ/TW on reforming the work of drafting and implementing laws; and 68-NQ/TW on the development of the private economy," the professor commented.
According to him, these resolutions, along with supplementary ones, have outlined the importance of the private sector, the need for technological dynamism, legal reforms, and deeper international integration. These pillars stem from streamlining and increasing the efficiency of the administrative apparatus and merging provinces and cities. When successfully implemented, these resolutions will create a crucial foundation for driving rapid economic growth in Vietnam in the latter half of this decade.
Vietnam is expected to put forward some initiatives on AI.
Also responding to Thanh Nien newspaper , Professor Stephen Robert Nagy (International Christian University - Japan, scholar at the Institute for International Studies in Japan) stated: "Vietnam, like many other countries, faces the question of whether 2026 will be as unpredictable and unstable as 2025, or even more so? The answer is very complex. The global economy is still adapting to tariffs from the US and its increasingly unpredictable foreign policy. Furthermore, China is entering a period of structural decline, which will have a global impact. China has not been able to get rich before its population ages, and those pressures are increasing. This will positively impact Southeast Asia and Vietnam if it can become a destination for the relocation of supply chains."
"The 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam may introduce several initiatives to make Vietnam more attractive to supply chains. Through this, the world will reinforce its stance that Vietnam is a partner to everyone, not an enemy to anyone, but emphasizes the 'four no's' policy (No participation in military alliances; No alignment with one country against another; No allowing foreign countries to establish military bases or use territory to attack other countries; No use of force or threat of force in international relations). I expect Vietnam will also introduce some initiatives in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) to ensure it leads in AI-related changes."
Source: Thanh Nien Newspaper
