What is the Asia-Pacific economy waiting for to prosper?

Washington[US], February 5: In the midst of many difficulties, in order to prosper, the Asia-Pacific economy needs to be boosted by the recovery of China, the improvement of the situation in Japan and the take-off of the US and Europe. .
That is the opinion in the report on the economic situation in the Asia-Pacific region (APAC) published by Moody's Analytics Company, part of Moody's Group - one of three global credit rating units. top of the world .
China needs more stimulus
For China this year, the real estate market will remain the thorniest issue. Real estate investment plummeted 9.6% last year, leaving private investment down 0.4%. It is expected that in 2024, this country will have more policies to support the real estate industry through direct support for home buyers and investors, which may be larger with lower interest rates. If the pressure is reduced, the Chinese real estate market will put pressure on goods, production and consumption.
Assuming that global commodity demand will accelerate in the second half of 2024, manufacturing investment will support growth. Moody's report expects Chinese policymakers will have more programs to stimulate the development of industries such as automobiles, high-tech electrical equipment and electronics. Without additional economic stimulus measures, China's GDP will hardly achieve 5% growth in 2024.
Fiscal policy support will also be most important for China. China's recovery is expected to receive a boost from subsidies or tax incentives. Policymakers have been hesitant to direct direct support to households. To know exactly China's support measures, perhaps we need to wait until the meeting of the two congresses in March. Those are two important annual meetings taking place at the same time of two bodies: the Congress of Delegates National People's Congress (National Assembly) and National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (similar to the Central Vietnam Fatherland Front).
Japan waits for salary increase
The outlook for the Japanese economy in 2024 is also modest and it is difficult to accelerate output growth in the first half of the year. While fiscal policy will keep the economy from deteriorating, it is unlikely to generate strong growth until mid-year - when wage increases for the workforce begin .
Gradually decreasing inflation and the results of wage negotiations are expected to help real wage growth (ie after deducting inflation) reach a positive level around mid-2024. That will help boost consumption, while also helping increase investment spending. Along with that, the second half of 2024 is also expected to gradually improve in the US and European markets. Export growth will add vitality to the Japanese economy. When central banks of countries cut interest rates from mid-2024, international market demand for Japanese goods will increase.
Southeast Asia still has many prospects
Unlike in China and Japan, domestic demand plays a strong role in stabilizing growth in Southeast Asia in 2023. This year, the same is expected to continue as exporters wait. Wait for global trade and investment spending to pick up. Furthermore, the return of tourists from China, supported by expanded flight capacity and easing of visa requirements across the region, including Southeast Asia.
Another driver for growth in Southeast Asian countries is that fiscal policy is expected to continue to focus around improving infrastructure to improve efficiency and reduce costs. Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam have focused on projects such as road infrastructure, railway bridges and improving electronic capacity.
In Southeast Asia, the inflation problem has improved in 2023. However, inflation risks have not completely disappeared in Southeast Asia as well as many other regions. One of the main causes was the Red Sea crisis that later disrupted trade between Europe and Asia. Transit times are longer and crude oil prices are likely to increase.
Source: Thanh Nien Newspaper